Severe Storms Possible Today

Warm, moist air advected into the region overnight after a warm front pushed through the area. This is leading to 8 AM temperatures in the mid 60s. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph will continue to warm temperatures into the mid to upper 70s by this afternoon.

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All this warm, moist air will lead to the development of instability across the region. Again, think of this as thunderstorm juice. The only question will be what effect the clouds have on the instability as mostly cloudy skies are expected today. Hi-Res models are suggesting moderate instability will develop by early afternoon.

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Another ingredient for severe weather is shear. We’ll have an abundance of shear across the region, especially in the low levels of the atmosphere. Shear helps to organize and strengthen thunderstorms. The low-level shear is of particular interest when forecast tornadoes.

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Severe Threats

As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather. Think of this as a level 3 out of 5 risk. Damaging wind is the main threat. However, secondary hazards of large hail and tornadoes will be possible. A strong tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

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Although the predominant mode of storms will take place in a squall line, the combination of strong shear and moderate instability has heightened the tornado threat, especially around 6 PM to 8 PM this evening. The below map indicates that sufficient tornado ingredients exist to warrant some concern.

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Timing

A line of thunderstorms will form along a cold front to the west of the region this afternoon. This line of storms will approach the Mississippi River by 5 PM. Storms may form ahead of the line around this time in western Kentucky. The main line of storms will likely push through between the 6 PM and 8 PM timeframe.

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Once the cold front pushes through overnight, the severe threat will end. The cold front will be quite strong, dropping temperatures into the mid to low 30s by Wednesday morning.

That should wrap up this forecast. Thanks for stopping by and look for more updates throughout the day.

-Meteorologist Jacob Wilkins

Severe Weather Threat Tuesday

A chilly Tater Day is expected to begin this first week of April. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 30s, but should slowly warm into the low to mid 50s by this afternoon. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon as winds shift out of the southeast.

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A warm front will likely lift through the region tonight. This will lead to the development of widespread light showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Overall, conditions will be mostly cloudy as southerly winds warm temperatures through the night. Temperatures will be in the low 60s by early Tuesday morning.

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Tuesday Severe Potential

Southerly winds at the surface will lead to quick surface heating. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s by the early afternoon. This, combined with sufficient moisture, will lead to moderate instability across the region. Think of this as “thunderstorm juice”.

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The instability will be exist in an environment with a lot of spin in the atmosphere. Thus, severe weather is a concern on Tuesday afternoon.

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Storms may begin to form as early as Noon and last through 6 PM. The main concern is damaging wind, but isolated hail and tornadoes will also be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in an “enhanced” risk of severe weather. Think of this as a level 3 out of 5 threat.

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A cold front is expected to move through during the evening hours on Tuesday. This will signal the end of the severe weather threat. A few showers may linger overnight as lows drop into the mid 30s.

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Chilly and Calm Wednesday

High pressure will move into place on Wednesday. This will lead to much calmer conditions as partly cloudy skies are expected. Temperatures will remain chilly as highs top out in the low 50s. At least there’s no rain in the forecast.

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That should wrap up this forecast. Thanks for stopping by and I hope you have a wonderful Tater Day!

One Last Soggy Day

One last rainy day is expected today. A warm front lifted through the region this morning, which is responsible for showers to our north and southeast. A few more showers will be likely throughout the day as highs top out in the mid to upper 60s.

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A line of heavy showers and storms may move through the region this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the region from the west. Additional showers will stick around through midnight before eventually pulling out of the area. Lows will drop into the mid 40s.

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A much nicer day is expected on Friday as high pressure moves into the region. Mostly cloudy skies will give way to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Highs will top out in the upper 50s. Chilly conditions move in Friday night as lows drop into the low 40s under mostly clear skies.

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A warm day is expected on Saturday as southerly flow will lead to temperatures in the mid 60s. Finally, some spring like weather!

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Some afternoon showers or storms may be possible. No severe weather is expected at this time.

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That should wrap up this forecast. Thanks for stopping by and I hope you have a wonderful day!

-Meteorologist Jacob Wilkins

Rainy Today and Thursday

A rainy day is expected today as a cold front very slowly works through the area. This will keep temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s throughout the day. The heaviest rain should fall to the south and east of the region, limiting the flooding concerns some.

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Heavier rain will work into the region late overnight and into Thursday morning as a warm front lifts north through the region. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s.

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The aforementioned warm front will usher in warmer temperatures on Thursday. Highs will likely top out in the mid to upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers.

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A line of thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours as a cold front moves into the region from the west. As of now, no severe weather is expected thanks to the abundance of rain and clouds. Rain will slowly depart the region overnight as lows drop into the mid 40s.

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High pressure should move in place on Friday. This will lead to calmer conditions as mostly cloudy skies give way to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Highs will top out in the mid 50s.

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That should wrap up this forecast. Thanks for stopping by and I hope you have a wonderful day!

-Meteorologist Jacob Wilkins

Warm Today, Wet Later

A gloomy, but warm day is forecast across the region. Southwest flow aloft will provide us with abundant cloud cover and warm temperatures. Highs will top out in the upper 60s under cloudy skies with a few showers here and there. Most of the rain will stay north of the Ohio River. Gusty south winds will also be possible.

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A frontal system will move into the region from the north overnight. This will bring heavy rain into the area late tonight and into Wednesday morning. Lows will drop into the mid 50s. Over a half inch of rain is expected by 7 AM Wednesday.

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A cold front will slowly work through the area on Wednesday. Heavy rain is once again in the forecast. Highs will be limited to the mid to upper 50s and may drop in the afternoon as the cold front continues to move south. A majority of the rain may fall just to the south of the region. However, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the area in a “slight” risk of flash flooding. Think of this as a level 2 out of 4 threat.

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Rain should become a bit lighter on Wednesday night. Lows will drop into the low 50s.

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We should begin to dry out some on Thursday as high pressure works into the region from the northwest. A few showers will still be likely Thursday morning, but chances should diminish in the afternoon. Highs will likely be limited to the upper 50s. Overall amounts will be between 1.5-2″ total.

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That should wrap up this forecast. Thanks for stopping by and I hope you have a wonderful day!

-Meteorologist Jacob Wilkins

 

Warm & Wet Week Ahead

High pressure located to the northeast of the region and low pressure located to the west will cause southeast winds to develop throughout the day. This will warm temperatures into the upper 50s despite rain working into the region this afternoon. Southeast winds may gust in excess of 20 mph. This may actually bring temperatures into the low 60s this afternoon.

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A small chance of rain is possible overnight. Though, the best chance seems to be well north of the Ohio River. We will be stuck under cloudy skies and continued southeast flow. Lows will remain mild and in the low 50s.

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Occasional showers will once again be possible on Tuesday. Again, the best chance of rain should be north of the Ohio River. Temperatures will warm into the mid 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Southerly winds could gust up to 30 mph throughout the day.

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A cold front will work into the region Tuesday night. This will bring widespread showers to  the region. A few storms may be possible late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Lows will drop into the mid 50s.

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Temperatures will continue to drop Wednesday morning, perhaps into the upper 40s. A chilly afternoon is expected with heavy rain sticking around the area. Highs will top out in the low 50s for the remainder of the day. The development of flooding may be a concern as some models give us up to 2″ of rain through Thursday morning.

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That should wrap up this forecast. Thanks for stopping by and I hope you have a wonderful day!

-Meteorologist Jacob Wilkins

Wet and Warm Weekend

Southerly flow returns to the region day leading to warmer temperatures. Off and on rain showers will be possible, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will top out in the mid 50s.

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Southeast winds along with clouds and rain will keep conditions relatively warm overnight as lows drop into the upper 40s.

Warmer Saturday

Gusty southwest flow will develop on Saturday. This will warm temperatures into the mid 60s. Showers will be possible throughout the day. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible in the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region from the north.

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Showers should gradually move out of the region Saturday night. Lows drop into the upper 30s with gusty northeast winds.

Nicer Sunday

A nicer day is expected Sunday with partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 50s.

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That should wrap up this forecast. Thanks for stopping by and I hope you have a great day!

-Meteorologist Jacob Wilkins