Don’t let the forecast warm temperatures fool you, a strong cold front will work through the region Thursday night.
Models are now in decent agreement that the potential for accumulating winter precipitation is increasing. Ahead of the front warm air will surge temperatures into the low 60s. This means precipitation will start Thursday as just plain rain.
However, the strong cold front will work through the region Thursday evening and overnight. This will lead to a quick changeover from rain to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. The below animation is the forecast precipitation type from the NAM model valid from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM Friday. Precipitation starts as rain (green & yellow), then transitions to freezing rain (Orange & Red), then to a mix of snow and sleet (Purple & Blue).
Temperatures should drop enough on Friday morning to transition the precipitation type to all snow on Friday as moisture moves away from the region. Below is the European Model forecast precipitation type Friday evening.
While it’s much to early to give a forecast for rain, ice, and snow amounts, confidence is high in accumulations of each. The current forecast would bring negative impacts to travel on Friday morning and throughout the day on Friday. Maybe a snow day is in the cards!
I fully anticipate winter weather advisories of some kind to be issued in the next couple of days. For now, just treat this as a “head’s up”. Have a great rest of your day!
-Meteorologist Jacob Wilkins