Last Warm Day; Cold & (Maybe) Snow Looming

Very Warm Today

Temperatures will be very warm across the region today. Temperatures are already around 50° at 7 AM and will likely rise to around 70° by this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

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A few isolated showers may be possible by the afternoon hours. Hi-resolution models suggest showers may form by 3 PM.

HRRR Simulated Radar - Valid 2 PM to 11 PM
HRRR Simulated Radar – Valid 2 PM to 11 PM

The reason for the warmth will be gusty southerly winds. South winds of 10 to 20 mph could gust up to 30 mph this afternoon.

HRRRMW_sfc_gust_006
HRRR Model Forecast Wind Gusts – Valid This Afternoon – College of DuPage

A cold front will begin to approach the region this evening and overnight. This will bring a chance of some gusty showers along with it. A line of showers and a few storms will approach the region by 2 AM. This will be along the cold front.

00Z-20171204_NAMNSTMW_prec_radar-24-36-20-100
Hi-Res NAM Model Simulated Radar – Valid 6 PM to 6 AM Tuesday – College of DuPage

Temperatures at the time of the cold front passage will be around 58°, but a stiff northwest wind will quickly usher in colder temperatures, dropping to the mid 40s by mid morning. We’ll remain stuck in the low to mid 40s throughout the rest of the day with isolated showers sticking around.

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This sets the stage for cold temperatures on Tuesday night. Low temperatures will likely dip to around 29° under mostly clear skies.

Cold Sticks Around

The cold pattern will likely stick around for at the least the rest of the week. The GFS model shows high temperatures sticking mostly in the 30s and 40s over the coming 10 days.

GFS Model 10 Day Temperature Forecast - weather.us
GFS Model 10 Day Temperature Forecast – weather.us

With such prolonged cold in place, one has to wonder about snow chances! We’ll have to watch a clipper system Friday and into Saturday. This could be our first shot of accumulating snowfall of the season. However, accumulations, if any, are expected to be minor.

GFS Surface Model - Valid Noon Friday to Saturday Evening - pivotalweather.com
GFS Surface Model – Valid Noon Friday to Saturday Evening – pivotalweather.com

Looking way out into the future, I’m still seeing a pretty strong signal of a potential winter weather setup around the 15th of December. If current solutions pan out, this could also bring accumulating snow to the region.

GFS Surface Model - Valid December 15-17 - pivotalweather.com
GFS Surface Model – Valid December 15-17 – pivotalweather.com

A long range forecasting technique also suggests a southern storms pattern in the days leading up to Christmas. If cold air can remain in place, this could also be favorable for late December snow chances. I’d wager our white Christmas chances are higher than average. But bear in mind that climatologically, the chances of a white Christmas are slim to begin with (~7%).

Bearing Sea Rule Forecast Map - Valid December 23rd - stormhamster.com
Bearing Sea Rule Forecast Map – Valid December 23rd – stormhamster.com

That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow along on Twitter and Facebook! Have a great day!

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