Hail Threat This Evening

A Marginal Risk For Severe Hail Exists This Evening

We just can’t completely shake that severe weather threat just yet. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined Marshall County in a “marginal” risk for severe hail. Think of this as a level 1 out of 5 risk.

PAH_swody1
Severe Weather Outlook – NOAA SPC

The surface cold front moved through the region last night. As a result, cloudy skies and temperatures around 53° have overtaken the region.

8:35 AM Temperatures - Kentucky Mesonet
8:35 AM Temperatures – Kentucky Mesonet

So how in the world are we supposed to get storms in this chilly environment? Well, low level atmospheric flow is still out of the west and southwest, and still advecting warm, moist air into the low levels of the atmosphere.

Low Level Warm Air Advection
Low Level Warm Air Advection

This leads to elevated atmospheric instability. While conditions are stable at the surface, thunderstorm juice is building in the low level of the atmosphere. You can see this great in a forecast sounding for the evening.

HRRR Model Forecast Sounding - Valid 9 PM - pivotalweather.com
HRRR Model Forecast Sounding – Valid 9 PM – pivotalweather.com

A patch of thunderstorms will likely form to the west of the region this afternoon and move east with time. Small hail will be possible with these storms. The overall hail threat is low, but not zero.

hrrr.refcmp_uh001h.us_ov.2017110612-loop
HRRR Model Simulated Radar – Valid Noon to Midnight – pivotalweather.com

The most likely time frame for Marshall County is 6:30 PM to 4 AM. Off an on showers and storms will occur during this time frame. Hail will be possible with the earlier storms.

uh25_max.us_ov

These showers and storms will be training over the same area. This will lead to minor flash flooding concerns. Anywhere between 0.5 – 2″ of rain will be possible, depending on where the line of heavier cells end up.

Hi-Res NAM Forecast Rainfall Amounts - Valid Thru 3 AM Tuesday - pivotalweather.com
Hi-Res NAM Forecast Rainfall Amounts – Valid Thru 3 AM Tuesday – pivotalweather.com

The Weather Prediction Center has issued a “marginal” risk of flash flooding. Think of this as a level 1 out of 4 threat.

94ewbg
Excessive Rainfall Outlook – Valid Today – NOAA WPC

Outside of rain chances, northerly wind will keep conditions cool today under cloudy skies. Highs will likely be around 58°. Overnight, rain and clouds will keep temperatures fairly mild, around 50°.

Hi-Res NAM Model Forecast Temperatures - Valid 6 AM Tuesday - pivotalweather.com
Hi-Res NAM Model Forecast Temperatures – Valid 6 AM Tuesday – pivotalweather.com

That should wrap up today’s forecast. Be sure to follow @MarshallCoWX on Twitter for the latest updates, as well as Marshall County Weather on Facebook. Have a great Monday!

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