Severe Weather Possible Today (11/5/17)

Main Weather Story is Severe Weather Potential Today and Tonight

Temperatures are currently around 70° with dew point temperatures in the mid 60s. That is an extremely warm, moist environment for the month of November. Temperatures should rise all the way to around 78° this afternoon.

Capture
Temperatures as of 7:40 AM – Kentucky Mesonet

Climatalogically speaking, when we see temperatures and dew point temperatures that high in November, we begin monitoring for severe weather due to the instability, or “thunderstorm juice” it can produce.

HRRR Forecast Instability - Valid 3 PM - pivotalweather.com
HRRR Forecast Instability – Valid 3 PM – pivotalweather.com

This instability, combined with shear due to the shifting of atmospheric winds at different levels, will lead to a line of strong to severe thunderstorms forming along the cold front located to the north of the region.

hrrr_2017110512_012_36.93--88.36--2
Wind Shear Graphic – HRRR Model – pivotalweather.com

The storms should march south along and just ahead of the surface cold front. The main hazard as of now is damaging wind. However, isolated hail and potentially a tornado is possible. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a “slight” risk of severe weather. Think of this as a level 2 out of 5 threat. This may change in later outlooks.

Severe Weather Outlook - NOAA SPC
Severe Weather Outlook – NOAA SPC

The Storm Prediction Center has also produced maps stating there is a 15% chance of severe hail and damaging wind for Marshall County as well as a 2% chance of a tornado. Again, this can change as the forecast evolves throughout the day.

SPC Severe Hail Probabilities
SPC Severe Hail Probabilities
SPC Damaging Wind Probabilities
SPC Damaging Wind Probabilities
day1probotlk_1300_torn
SPC Tornado Probabilities

Storms will likely move across the Ohio River around 8 PM. This means the time frame for greatest severe potential is between 7 PM and 11 PM.

hrrr.refcmp_uh001h.us_ov.2017110512-loop
HRRR Simulated Radar – Valid 6 PM to Midnight – pivotalweather.com

There’s a good chance that severe weather watches are issued tonight. I anticipate at least a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and potentially a Tornado Watch to be issued this evening ahead of the line of storms. A watch means conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather. If a warning is issued it means severe weather is occurring or imminent. Plan for taking shelter this evening and tonight, just in case.

Difference between watches and warnings - www.weatherworksinc.com
Difference between watches and warnings – http://www.weatherworksinc.com

That should wrap up this severe weather forecast. Be sure to follow @MarshallCoWX and Marshall County Weather for more frequent updates. Have a good Sunday.

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